Daley poll numbers sag, but no major challenger looms

Daley poll numbers sag, but no major challenger looms
By Rick Pearson and Hal Dardick
Copyright © 2010, Chicago Tribune
July 17, 2010
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-daley-0718-20100717,0,6607459,full.story


More than half of Chicago voters say they don't want to see Mayor Richard Daley re-elected next year should he decide to run for a record seventh term, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows.

The mayor has been buffeted by a spate of summer violence, a weak economy and a high-profile failure to land the 2016 Olympics. Dissatisfaction abounds, the survey found, over Daley's handling of the crime problem, his efforts to rein in government corruption and his backing of a controversial long-term parking meter system lease.

As a result, the poll found only 37 percent of city voters approve of the job Daley is doing as mayor, compared with 47 percent who disapprove. Moreover, a record-low 31 percent said they want to see Daley re-elected, compared with 53 percent who don't want him to win another term.

Still, city voters like the mayor's pushes for more Wal-Mart stores and banning handguns, and Daley remains popular in the suburbs.

Daley's long tenure in office — he was first elected in 1989 — also may have led to a fatigue factor among many city voters looking for change. Despite Daley's unpopularity, no credible challenger has surfaced for a primary election that's seven months away.

"I'm really hopeful that we are going to get somebody else," said Harold Turrentine, 53, a Chicago firefighter who said he worked for Daley as a poll watcher in 1989. "I think he's been in office too long."

Daley has not said whether he will run again, though close allies expect him to be on the ballot.

The poll shows Daley — always a formidable political force — to be vastly weakened entering a potential re-election campaign. In Tribune polling conducted since 1994, voter support for the mayor's re-election has tumbled dramatically, since peaking at 68 percent in 1999. A year prior to the 2007 election, a poll showed only 41 percent of voters backed Daley's re-election — what had been the record low until the current survey.

Still, Daley's overwhelming victory last time was another example of the old political axiom that you can't beat someone with no one. He scored 71 percent of the vote against Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown and African-American activist William "Dock" Walls. In 2003, Daley scored 79 percent.

A few aldermen are shopping themselves around as potential candidates, and some politicians with broader political bases have been glad to see their names tossed into the ring — but none has shown a willingness to challenge Daley.

"I believe there is a path to victory for someone who wished to challenge the mayor, but it has to be a credible candidate, and the path to victory is by no means certain," said Ald. Joe Moore, 49th, a frequent Daley critic who plans to seek re-election to the City Council.

Among aldermen discussed as potential mayoral candidates are Robert Fioretti, 2nd; Sandi Jackson, 7th; Thomas Allen, 38th; Scott Waguespack, 32nd; Brendan Reilly, 42nd; and Thomas Tunney, 44th.

Earlier this year, White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel voiced his mayoral ambitions. But the former North Side congressman quickly added that he wouldn't take on Daley, for whom he served as a strategist and fundraiser in the mayor's first winning bid. Likewise, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart said he won't run for mayor unless the office is open.

Outgoing Cook County Assessor James Houlihan, by contrast, is considered a potential candidate whether or not Daley runs again. But a Houlihan challenge to Daley could result in a powerful alliance between the mayor and House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago. Madigan has long been at odds with Houlihan.

Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman also has been mentioned, but he just lost a grueling Democratic U.S. Senate primary.

In other major cities, business leaders have managed to defeat mayors with political backgrounds, but that's considered unlikely in Chicago. "If the mayor still has a strong base of support, it's among the business titans in the city," Moore said.

The poll showed Daley's problems transcend race in a city where it has historically played a major role in politics. African-American and white voters disapprove of Daley's job performance at an identical rate of 49 percent.

Still, the survey found white support for Daley greater than among blacks. Just 22 percent of black voters want to see him re-elected, compared with 37 percent of whites.

Kristner D. Squalls, 22, said the mayor's effort to secure the 2016 summer Olympics while crime battered the city and poor finances led to the controversial long-term lease of city parking meters "just turned me against" Daley.

"He was just so interested in getting the Olympics, even while everyone was getting shot," said Squalls, a hair salon assistant who lives in South Shore and is a lifelong city resident. "He just has an 'I don't care' attitude."

Daley supporters say they think he's done better than his counterparts across the country.

"I do like how the city, from the mid-'80s until now, has developed, with the new housing and all," said Valimir Juric, 54, a real estate investor who lives in Albany Park.

But Juric said he disagreed with the parking meter lease. Rates are too high, and the city could have made a better deal, he said. Four out of five voters surveyed disapprove of Daley's handling of the parking meter lease, only a slight improvement from the 90 percent who disapproved almost a year ago.

On other issues, 68 percent of voters said they disapprove of Daley's efforts to curb City Hall corruption, and 54 percent disapprove of the mayor's handling of crime. Only one-third of voters approve of Daley's crime-fighting efforts.

The poll of 500 registered city voters was conducted July 8-14 and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.4 percentage points.

While corruption has been a long-standing problem at City Hall, the poll found evidence of increasing concern among city residents about the safety of their neighborhoods.

Jackie Zeno, 60, of the Gold Coast, said she believes more police — and not surveillance cameras — are needed.

"You don't ever see a cop on the streets anymore," she said. "All you see are blue lights. If you are getting mugged, what's a blue light going to do for you?"

The poll found a pair of positives for Daley. Three-quarters of city voters approved of his efforts for more Wal-Marts in Chicago, while 56 percent backed his support for banning handguns. The U.S. Supreme Court recently gutted Chicago's handgun ban ordinance.

There is a place where Daley remains popular: Outside the city limits. In the six-county suburban area, 56 percent of voters approve of the job Daley is doing, while only 26 percent disapprove.

rap30@aol.com

hdardick@tribune.com