Wide G.O.P. Field Tests the Waters for 2012 Contest

Wide G.O.P. Field Tests the Waters for 2012 Contest
By JIM RUTENBERG and JEFF ZELENY
Copyright by The New York Times
Published: September 17, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/18/us/politics/18repubs.html?_r=2&th&emc=th


DES MOINES — The Republican presidential field for 2012 is beginning to take shape in a period of intensive upheaval set off by the rise of the Tea Party movement, expanding the roster of potential candidates but presenting a more complicated road to the nomination.

The opportunities and pitfalls were on full display Friday — in some ways a kickoff to the Republican contest — as no fewer than six possible contenders made appearances in Washington and, in one especially closely watched case, here in Iowa, the first stop on the path to the White House. At least as many more Republicans are already taking steps to test candidacies of their own.

At a gathering of conservatives called the Values Voter Summit in the capital, Mitt Romney hewed closely to the issues of small government and low taxes that have driven Tea Party members this year, suggesting the Obama administration’s economic policies are “one reason they will serve only one term.” Mr. Romney, who has assiduously courted conservative support since his unsuccessful campaign in 2008, mocked those who once declared Republicans an “endangered species.”

But the political spotlight on Friday truly belonged to former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, whose keynote speech at the party’s annual Ronald Reagan dinner here set off a new round of “will she, won’t she?” speculation that has made it hard for other potential candidates to find their place in the growing field.

Ms. Palin was coy about her intentions, jokingly recalling that her husband, Todd, urged her to skip an afternoon jog to avoid headlines like “Palin in Iowa, decides to run.” She did not mention her political future, but delivered a sharp critique of party leaders who have been skeptical of some winning Tea Party candidates.

“We can’t blow it, G.O.P., but we won’t wait for that political playbook to be handed to us from on high from the political elites. We won’t do that,” Ms. Palin said, speaking over applause. She added, “It may take some renegades to get us there. It may take folks shaking things up to get us there.”

The Iowa debut of Ms. Palin did not go unnoticed by the White House. The press secretary, Robert Gibbs, said, “It’s normally around this time of year you go dip your toe in the water.” Shortly before her speech, the White House said President Obama would make an appearance of his own in Iowa on Sept. 29.

Ms. Palin’s role in the race is just one of the great imponderables — and a point of frustration — giving other candidates pause as they try to plot for the jockeying that will begin in earnest immediately after Election Day and assess whether the upheaval brought about this year by grassroots conservatives is an enduring movement.

As she left the stage here on Friday evening, she said she did not have a timeline for making a decision. She added with a smile, “I know that you can make a big difference in America without even having a title.” But as she lingered to sign autographs and pose for pictures, she added, “I want to get back to Iowa soon.”

Seldom has a week gone by this summer when potential candidates have not passed through Iowa, seeking an introduction to party activists.

The roster includes: Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Representative Mike Pence of Indiana, former Speaker Newt Gingrich; former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, former Gov. George E. Pataki of New York and Representative Ron Paul of Texas.

Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi sent a greeting by mail to Iowa Republicans. Senator John Thune of South Dakota has made quiet inquiries, but has not visited his neighboring state. And Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who emerged from the primary season of the Congressional elections as something of a kingmaker, was urged on Friday by Bob Vander Plaats, a conservative activist, to visit Iowa.

In interviews, strategists for several potential candidates said they were eager to see just how potent the new brand of enthusiasm on display in Republican primaries proves to be in the general election campaign — and, more important, whether it was enough to wrest Congress from the Democrats.

Yet there is no mistaking that the recent string of unexpected primary victories by Tea Party-supported upstarts over party-backed Republican regulars is only adding to the increasingly enticing prospect of running for the White House on the Republican ticket.

“In a year where you’ve had this many upsets, generally every person can look in the mirror and say, ‘Why not me?’ ” said Mr. Gingrich, who has already made several scouting trips to Iowa this year as he ponders the same question. “I expect a dozen people to be running.”

Yet, Mr. Gingrich said in an interview, the potential candidates will have to navigate not only one another, but also a new and unsettled order in a party being reshaped by new grass-roots players resistant to its once-vaunted top-down form of discipline, which has been upended.

“What will attract more candidates to the field is an increasing likelihood of President Obama losing,” said former Gov. John H. Sununu of New Hampshire, chairman of the state’s Republican Party.

In the wake of unexpected victories on Tuesday by Christine O’Donnell in the Republican primary for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s former Senate seat in Delaware, and of Carl P. Paladino in the Republican primary for governor in New York, political Washington was consumed with talk about what it meant for 2012 presidential candidates: Would they face perils of being either too closely associated with politics as usual? Would a rush to court the hard-right Tea Party activists during the primaries create complications for the general election, where independent voters often hold sway?

But presidential strategists involved in building organizations for 2012 said it was too soon to answer any of those questions.

Bill McInturff, a longtime Republican pollster who was involved in Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008, said his party would be wise to remember that the lessons of a midterm Congressional election do not generally apply to a presidential election two years later.

“The worst absolute projector of a presidential year that’s coming is looking at a midterm result,” Mr. McInturff said.

For instance, he said, the dynamics that led the Democrats to pick up 26 House seats toward the midpoint of Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1982 — unemployment was at more than 10 percent and Mr. Reagan’s approval rating was in the mid-40s — did not exist two years later when he won re-election comfortably.

And, several strategists said, the process of nominating a Republican presidential candidate in a national race is not the same as nominating a Republican in a local or statewide contest.

But some party leaders said candidates would be unwise to disregard the message from these primary contests. A test of purity, they said, could play out with even greater prominence.

“The Republican establishment must get out of the way,” said Steve Scheffler, a longtime social conservative leader in Iowa who is a member of the Republican National Committee. “They need to have faith in the activists that we will pick the right winner who can win.”

Ashley Parker contributed reporting from Washington.